The truth about our picksMarch 10, 2016
I often get asked, “So, how much can I expect to win if I use your picks.” It’s a great question. While there isn’t a simple one-word answer, we can answer the question by looking at an expected range of possible outcomes.
Of course we can’t predict with absolute certainty how many bets we will win or lose over any time period. But, based on years of prior results, we can predict a range. We can take an educated guess as to how much we might win or lose over any number of bets. Based on my past performance over many years, here’s what I can tell you, if you bet my picks over a large number of bets:
1. You are more likely to win than lose with my picks. Even when we account for the juice (vig/commission) that sportsbooks charge, my long-term results indicate that we are much more likely to win than lose.
2. You can win a lot. If my future performance approximates my past performance, you can expect to win a lot (more than you can make in most any other investment). In fact, it is reasonable to expect to do about 4 times better than the stock market. If past performance repeats, we have about a 65% chance of doing better than the stock market over the course of any given year.
3. You can lose. Just like any investment, there is risk involved. Sports betting consists of both skill and luck. Sometimes we get lucky and other times we get unlucky. There is no way to avoid that. If you want to gain (i.e. win money), you sometimes have to endure pain (losing money).
So, in the end, what can you expect? Here’s a graph showing the likely expected outcomes from utilizing my picks over the course of an entire year (3,500 bets):
The green lines are the likelihood of an event happening. The higher the line, the more likely it is to occur. The numbers along the bottom are total units won or lost. Units are simply a measure of money. I recommend starting with a bankroll of 100 units and risking an average of 15 units. So if we start with 100 units, and win 20 units, we have achieved a 20% ROI (return on investment).
As you can see, there is a wide range of expected outcomes. The results in the middle represent the highest probability results. The most likely outcome is that we win around 42 units. What does that mean? It means that if you risked $100 per unit, you would win around $4,000. That’s a 42% ROI based on starting out with a $10,000 investment (bankroll). Given that the stock market typically returns around 10% per year, our expected outcome is about four times better!
This graph also shows that other outcomes are very possible. The further you move away from the middle, the lower the chances become that we will see that result. Based on our assumptions, here’s the expected outcomes:
- Our most likely expectation is to win about +42 units (+40% ROI)
- We have a 67% chance of making between -38 and +122 (-38% to +122% ROI)
- We have an 80% chance of making between -64 and +150 units
- We have a 95% chance that the results will fall between -121 and +205 units.
- We have a 68% chance of winning (and a 32% chance of losing)
- We have a 25% chance of at least doubling our money (a 100% or better return)
- We have an 65% chance of beating the historic stock market return of 10%
You can improve your odds of winning by making sure you always “get the best of the line.” By this, I mean that if you can shop multiple sportsbooks for the best lines and odds, you always win more (often a lot more) than playing with just one outlet.
Smaller Numbers = Higher Variance
Variance in sports betting is very high and over the short run, anything can happen.
So in summary, you should expect to win with my picks. How much you win or lose will depend a lot on luck. The more bets you make, the smaller role luck plays – your results will be more stable. Over the short term (few bets), anything can and will happen. While I can’t guarantee you won’t lose (that chance is there), I can say that you have a better chance of making more money with my picks than you do by playing the stock market.
So, if you can withstand the higher variance of sports betting, and you treat it like an investment, you can come out way ahead, while having a lot of fun!